Keep in mind that the final Winograd report is to be released in July, and
that's going to be much, much worse. Kadima knows Olmert is bad news, but
they have to also counter a Bibi alternative
Bibi is leading the polls -- In a separate question on who they would vote
for, the poll found that 26% of Israelis believe that Likud chairman
Binyamin Netanyahu should be prime minister, followed by Foreign Minister
Tzipi Livni (9%), former prime minister Ehud Barak (6%), Labor MK Ami Ayalon
(5%), Vice Premier Shimon Peres (4%), Israel Beiteinu leader Avigdor
Lieberman (3%), billionaire Arkadi Gaydamak (2%) and Peretz (1%). Olmert
received zero percent in the poll, Channel 2 said.
Also, Netanyahu has set up a special team of Russian-speaking advisers to
prepare to compete for Russian votes in the next election.
The team, which meets every few weeks, includes Benny Briskin, who served as
an adviser to Netanyahu while he was prime minister. It also includes Dr.
Zeev Hanin, a sociologist from Bar-Ilan University, Dr. Alex Feldman, an
expert on opinion polls, and Likud spokesman Dmitry Shimelfarb.
-----Original Message-----
From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 3:10 PM
To: Fred Burton; 'Reva Bhalla'; Analysts
Subject: Re: Humint - Israel and Syria
Its like american politics. Hillary can say its her. Doesn't mean shit until
she has it. Its like consulting the fbi on who the next president will be.
They know what's in the papers.
This stuff is all over the israeli papers. No secret that bibi seems to have
it except that he's as loved as hillary. But olmert is finished.
--
Sent via Cingular Xpress Mail with Blackberry
-----Original Message-----
From: "Fred Burton"
Date: Tue, 1 May 2007 15:07:45
To:"'Reva Bhalla'" , "'Analysts'"
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria
BiBi (protect) has said that Olmert is "finished" Thursday.
In looking at my notes, there may be an interim short term replacement,
however, it looks like BiBi is the one that wants the job very badly. He
said, "it's mine, I've shored up Likud. Thank you Fred for your support of
Israel..."
I don't know Izzy politics as to others who may be the short term fix.
-----Original Message-----
From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 3:01 PM
To: 'Analysts'
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria
So to clarify, Bibi is implying that Olmert has privately indicated that
he's resigning on Thursday?
-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 3:00 PM
To: 'Reva Bhalla';
friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net; 'Peter Zeihan';
'Analysts'
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria
Thursday from BiBi (protect)
-----Original Message-----
From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 2:57 PM
To:
friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net; 'Fred Burton'; 'Peter Zeihan';
'Analysts'
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria
The reason you're hearing he's going out thursdya is b/c that's the day the
massive opposition political protests are planned. They're trying to get
everyone committed to the idea that Olmert needs to be kicked out now. I
don't think Olmert's gonna last long, but he's not going to duck out that
quickly
-----Original Message-----
From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 2:55 PM
To: Fred Burton; Peter Zeihan; Analysts
Subject: Re: Humint - Israel and Syria
And if not thursday then wednesday and if not wednesday then sunday.
--
Sent via Cingular Xpress Mail with Blackberry
-----Original Message-----
From: "Fred Burton"
Date: Tue, 1 May 2007 14:53:29
To:, "'Peter Zeihan'"
, "'Analysts'"
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria
New info --
Olmert is out on Thursday.
From my lips to your ears.
-----Original Message-----
From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 1:17 PM
To: Peter Zeihan; Fred Burton; Analysts
Subject: Re: Humint - Israel and Syria
That's open but there is no one except bibi to take over. Perez is finished.
Peres is too old. And barak is even less liked than bibi.
--
Sent via Cingular Xpress Mail with Blackberry
-----Original Message-----
From: "Peter Zeihan"
Date: Tue, 1 May 2007 13:11:14
To:, "'Analysts'"
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria
Unseat in an election? Or unseat as PM?
-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 1:08 PM
To: Analysts
Subject: Humint - Israel and Syria
From an Israeli source who spoke to Netenyahu today:
BiBi believes he can unseat Olmert and there is a movement underway to do
so.
Source also advises the IDF cannot protect the Golan and the IDF believes
the Syrians are making plans to take it.
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1227863_re-humint-israel-and-syria-. html
When they loose their HUMINT coverage they will move.
Thus far, elements of their disruption strategy has been working from what
I understand.
When the window closes, BB knows what he must do. We won't be given any
warning, similar to their strike on Abu Jihad.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From:
analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Nate Hughes
Sent: Wednesday, February 24, 2010 4:56 PM
To: Analyst List
Subject: Re: ANALYST TASKING - CLIENT QUESTION - Israeli strike against
Iran
The Israelis are wily bastards, so you can't rule anything out.
They should be able to range most targets in Iran with their newer Jericho
ballistic missiles, though that's not going to get you bunker busting
without nukes and they'd only use -- if any -- a handful because that's
part of their nuclear deterrent.
Same deal with the sub-launched cruise missiles. But these are thought to
be more limited in range and also aren't going to get you either the
bunker busting or quantities you need.
So you need the air force. The strike package would be impacted
significantly by the route. This is a big, complex operation no matter how
you slice it. But the shorter the route, the more targets they can hit.
But the US would take several weeks to do this. That isn't realistic for
the izzies. They'll conduct BDA and might be able to get a few follow-on
strikes but they don't have friends and the airspace issue is key.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Peter Zeihan
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2010 16:44:15 -0600
To: Analyst List
Subject: Re: ANALYST TASKING - CLIENT QUESTION - Israeli strike against
Iran
that's not the question -- the question is that if they go solo, what can
they hit iran with?
Nate Hughes wrote:
If Iran crosses a red line, yes, Israel will act unilaterally if forced
to. Exactly where the red line for Israel is -- that's a key unknown
because Israel is laying on the rhetoric pretty think right now in order
to shift perceptions and get more prompt, effective action.
As far as we know, Israel's Jericho arsenal of ballistic missiles is
equipped primarily as part of the nuclear deterrent -- something it'll
need if it has any doubts about the effectiveness of its attempt to
destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program. At the end of the day, they do,
because they know that unilaterally, they'll only be setting it back,
not making a good shot at destroying it.
Thus even when it comes down to the unilateral strike, there will be
some interest in implicating the U.S. in the conflict and getting it to
come in and act.
But the attack itself will likely center around an air campaign. Some
ballistic missiles and submarine-launched cruise missiles may be used to
supplement the attack, but without the use of nuclear weapons, only a
large air campaign has the capacity to haul the ordnance to the number
of sites necessary to even attempt to pull this off -- especially the
heavy 5,000 lb bunker busters Israel would use to attempt to destroy
hardened and deeply buried facilities.
Airspace is an issue, and using Iraq's presents a number of political
problems (not the least that it is controlled by the USAF). How that is
addressed will be a significant factor in how this plays out and the
length of an air campaign that Israel can sustain -- and not just the
practical issue of range, but the political issue of the use of which
airspace.
The Israelis can absolutely sustain air operations at a high rate of
intensity, but at that range, they have very limited tanker assets and
generally go for more of the hit and be gone before anybody knows they
were there angle. But that's not how a complex air campaign works --
they need to be able to carry out battle damage assessments and conduct
follow on strikes. Not clear how long that will be feasible which is
part of the problem to begin with.
Korena, I'll be offline for a bit, but give me a call if you need to
talk this.
On 2/24/2010 5:30 PM, Karen Hooper wrote:
Team,
In regards to an Israeli strike against Iran, we have written that the
range and complexity of such an air campaign means that an air
campaign carried out in coordination with the United States would
likely be significantly more comprehensive and more effective -
something Israel wants. However, should all diplomatic efforts fail
and in the worst case scenario, do we think Israel would strike
against Iran without assistance from the U.S. regardless if it is a
comprehensive attack or not? Does Israel even have the capability to
solely launch strikes against Iran without the assistance of the U.S.?
If so, how long of a strike could Israel sustain with its current
missile load--what capability does Israel have to sustain an air
campaign to strike all desired targets?
Feedback needed by COB. Let me know if you have any questions.
--
Karen Hooper
Director of Operations
STRATFOR
www.stratfor.com
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1113282_re-analyst-tasking-client-qu estion-israeli-strike-against.html
Please keep your lips to yourself.
-----Original Message-----
From:
analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Fred Burton
Sent: Friday, March 06, 2009 6:02 PM
To: 'Analyst List'
Subject: RE: DISCUSSION/ BUDGET - Engaging with the Hezzies
BiBi will kill Nasrallah unless the U.S. can insure HZ is in their box.
>From my lips to your ears.
-----Original Message-----
From:
analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
Sent: Friday, March 06, 2009 3:01 PM
To: Analyst List
Subject: DISCUSSION/ BUDGET - Engaging with the Hezzies
sorry, im trying to hurry up b/c it's late in the day. the insight that i
sent out with ME1's and my back and forth explains it all.
1. The British are engaging HEzbollah.
2. this was a move coordinated with the US 3. that's a big break from Bush
policy, which was to completely isolate Hezbollah 4. US may not be
politically ready to deal with HZ, but it is ready to engage with syria,
which it's already doing.
5. The Syrians are in a complex situation right now, very clearly and
publicly engaging with the US, talking again with the Turks about wanting to
restart talks with the Israelis, all the while trying to reassure the
Iranians that they're not straying too far.
6. When it comes down to it, though, the syrians do not want Hezbollah
militarily empowered. They know they're going to have make some concessions,
but the direction they want to take is emboldening HZ as a POLITICAL
movement, allowing Damascus room to negotiate with US, Israel, Saudi in
cutting off HZ's militant arm.
7. According to our HZ insight, these discussions on moving more political
are underway already int he organization, which can lead to rifts
and that's what i call chaaaaaange, baby!
On Mar 6, 2009, at 2:54 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:
> this needs discussion before it can become a piece
>
>
> Reva Bhalla wrote:
>> Writing up an analysis on the UK move to engage Hezbollah in
>> coordination with US moves to engage Syria, and what that means for
>> Iran
>>
>> have a lot of info to organize, will try to get this out within the
>> hr medium-length
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1196005_re-discussion-budget-engagin g-with-the-hezzies-.html
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