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How Olmert castrated the war campaign  
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הודעהפורסם: שישי 11.08.06 8:09    נושא ההודעה: How Olmert castrated the war campaign



How Olmert castrated the war campaign: Government and
IDF racked by unprecedented leadership crisis




Analysis: Government and IDF racked by unprecedented leadership crisis

By Jonathan Ariel August 9, 2006

Relations between the country`s political and military leadership are at
the lowest point in the country`s history, on the verge of a crisis. In
addition, there is a growing lack of confidence between Chief of Staff Dan
Halutz, the first CoS to hail from the air force, and many of his general
staff colleagues from the ground forces, who say he and his "blue clique"
[blue being the color of the air force uniform-ed] do not fully appreciate
the nature of ground warfare.

According to informed sources, there is an almost total breakdown in trust
and confidence between the General Staff and the PM`s office.

They have described the situation as "even worse than the crises that
followed Ben Gurion`s decision to disband the Palmach, and Golda Meir and
Moshe Dayan`s cynical decision to place all the blame for the Yom Kippur
fiasco on the IDF`s shoulders.

Senior IDF officers have been saying that the PM bears sole responsibility
for the current unfavorable military situation, with Hezbollah still holding
out after almost a month of fighting.

This plan was supposed to have begun with a surprise air onslaught against
the Hezbollah high command in Beirut, before they would have had time to
relocate to their underground bunkers. This was to have been followed
immediately by large scale airborne and seaborne landing operations, in
order to get several divisions on the Litani River line, enabling them to
outflank Hezbollah`s "Maginot line" in southern Lebanon.

According to these officers, Olmert was presented with an assiduously
prepared and detailed operational plan for the defeat and destruction of
Hezbollah within 10-14 days, which the IDF has been formulating for the past
2-3 years.

This plan was supposed to have begun with a surprise air onslaught against
the Hezbollah high command in Beirut, before they would have had time to
relocate to their underground bunkers. This was to have been followed
immediately by large scale airborne and seaborne landing operations, in
order to get several divisions on the Litani River line, enabling them to
outflank Hezbollah`s "Maginot line" in southern Lebanon. This would have
surprised Hezbollah, which would have had to come out of its fortifications
and confront the IDF in the open, in order to avoid being isolated, hunted
down and eventually starved into a humiliating submission.

This was exactly what the IDF senior command wanted, as Israeli military
doctrine, based on the Wehrmacht`s blitzkrieg doctrine, has traditionally
been one of rapid mobile warfare, designed to surprise and outflank an
enemy.

According to senior military sources, who have been extensively quoted in
both the Hebrew media and online publications with close ties to the
country`s defense establishment, Olmert nixed the second half of the plan,
and authorized only air strikes on southern Lebanon, not initially on
Beirut.

Although the Premier has yet to admit his decision, let alone provide a
satisfactory explanation, it seems that he hoped futilely for a limited war.
A prominent wheeler-dealer attorney-negotiator prior to entering politics,
he may have thought that he could succeed by the military option of filing a
lawsuit as a negotiating ploy, very useful when you represent the rich and
powerful, as he always had.

Another motive may have been his desire to limit the economic damage by
projecting a limited rather than total war to the international financial
powers that be.

Whatever his reasons, the bottom line, according to these military sources,
is that he castrated the campaign during the crucial first days. The
decision to not bomb Beirut immediately enabled Nasrallah to escape, first
to his bunker, subsequently to the Iranian embassy in Beirut.

The decision to cancel the landings on the Litani River and authorize a very
limited call up of reserves forced the ground forces to fight under very
adverse conditions. Instead of outflanking a heavily fortified area with
overwhelming forces, they had to attack from the direction most expected,
with insufficient forces. The result, high casualties and modest
achievements.

This is the background of yesterday`s surprise effective dismissal of OC
northern Command Maj. General Udi Adam. According to various media sources,
Olmert was incensed at Adam`s remarks that he had not been allowed to fight
the war that had been planned. Adam allegedly made these remarks in response
to criticism against his running of the war, and the results so far
achieved.

Olmert`s responsibility for inaction goes much further. The US
administration had given Israel the green light to attack Syria. A senior
military source has confirmed to Israel Insider that Israel did indeed
receive a green light from Washington in this regard, but Olmert nixed it.

The scenario was that Syria, no military match for Israel, would face a
rapid defeat, forcing it to run to Iran, with which it has a defense pact,
to come to aid.

Iran, which would be significantly contained by the defeat of its sole ally
in the region, would have found itself maneuvered between a rock and a hard
place. If it chose to honor its commitment to Syria, it would face a war
with Israel and the US, both with military capabilities far superior to
Iran`s. If Teheran opted to default on its commitment to Damascus, it would
be construed by the entire region, including the restless Iranian
population, as a conspicuous show of weakness by the regime. Fascist regimes
such as that of the ayatollahs cannot easily afford to show that kind of
weakness.

As previously mentioned, Iran`s military capabilities are no match for
Israel`s. Bottom line, all Iran could do is to launch missiles at and hit
Israel`s cities, and try and carry out terror attacks. If there is one thing
history has shown, it is that such methods do not win wars. Israel would
undoubtedly suffer both civilian casualties and economic damage, but these
would not be that much more than what we are already experiencing. We have
already irreversibly lost an entire tourist season. Any Iranian and Syrian
missile offensives would be relatively short, as they are further form
Israel, and therefore would have to be carried out by longer range missiles.

These, by their very nature are much bigger and more complex weapons than
Katyushas. They cannot be hidden underground, and require longer launch
preparations, increasing their vulnerability to air operations. In addition
it is precisely for such kinds of missiles that the Arrow system was
developed.

The end result would be some additional economic damage, and probably around
500 civilian casualties. It may sound cold blooded, but Israel can afford
such casualties, which would be less than those sustained in previous wars
(for the record, in 1948 Israel lost 6,000, 1% of the entire population, and
in 1967 and 1973 we lost respectively 1,000 and 3,000 casualties).

The gains, however, would be significant. The Iranian nuclear threat, the
most dangerous existential threat Israel has faced since 1948, would be
eliminated. It would also change the momentum, which over the past two
decades as been with the ayatollahs. This could also have a major impact on
the PA, hastening the demise of the Islamist Hamas administration.

Instead, according to military sources, Israel finds itself getting bogged
down by a manifestly inferior enemy, due to the limitations placed on the
IDF by the political leadership. This has been construed by the enemy as a
clear sign that Israel is in the hands of a leadership not up to the task,
lacking the required experience, guts and willpower. In the Middle East this
is an invitation to court disaster, as witness by Iran`s and Syria`s
increased boldness in significantly upping the ante of their involvement in
the war.

Some senior officers have been mentioning the C-word in private
conversations. They have been saying that a coup d`etat might be the only
way to prevent an outcome in Lebanon that could embolden the Arab world to
join forces with Syria and Iran in an all out assault on Israel, given the
fact that such a development would be spurred entirely by the Arab and
Moslem world`s perception of Israel`s leadership as weak, craven and
vacillating, and therefore ripe for intimidation.

Seeing the once invincible IDF being stalemated by Hezbollah`s 3,000 troops
is a sure way to radiate an aura of weakness that in the Middle East could
precipitate attacks by sharks smelling blood.

http://web.israelinsider.com/Articles/Politics/9116.htm

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